Grain prices have slipped further this week following further favourable crop reports.
Following announcements by the USDA and SovEcon on US maize prospects and Russian wheat production, analysts are forecasting increases in South American maize crops for the 25/26 season. Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange expects its area could increase by as much as 20% following good seedbed conditions with planting about to get underway.
The result of this, and sterling strengthening, is UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) hit a new low earlier in the week at £166.55/t. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows a slight recovery to £167.15/t, the May-26 contract also slipped to £178.30/t.
With strong supplies and slowed demand, AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant doesn’t see any great recovery soon.
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) also fell over the week, currently sitting at €472.00/t.
Farm wheat stocks close to ten-year low
The AHDB is also reporting that merchants, ports and co-operatives in the UK held 39% less home-grown wheat at the end of June 2025 than a year earlier, at 494 Kt. On the other hand, they held a record 303 Kt of imported wheat stocks, 21% above June 2024.
Defra estimates that 651 Kt of home-grown wheat was held on farms in England and Wales at the end of June 2025. This is down 44% from last year 1.166 Mt, and 18% below the five-year average. Over the past ten years, the on-farm stocks of own grown wheat in England and Wales ranged from a low of 403 kt in 2021 to a high of 1.278 Mt in 2016. This means that the level of stocks at the end of June 2025 was close to the lowest level in the last ten years.
