UK feed wheat futures remain under pressure with abundant global supply keeping a lid on any sustained price recovery.
On the last day of September, the Nov-25 contract closed at a new low of £164.05/t. Prices have recovered slightly but are still bouncing along the bottom. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) at £164.55/t, the May-26 contract at £176.85/t.
When August’s USDA crop report estimated an increase of the US 2025 maize crop by 26.3 Mt, it took the market by surprise.
It was based on good weather, which has remained with harvest underway. “The chances are the USDA estimate is right. We are likely to see a significant US maize harvest this season, which will only add to the supply and demand pressure. It could be a record crop, with production over 425.3 Mt,” says AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant. Unfortunately, chances of a quick recovery look far off.
Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) also slid from September’s close, standing at €466.00/t, again on a favourable supply picture.
Brazilian agency Conab forecasts a 3.6% increase in soya bean production to 177.7 Mt for the 2025/26 season, due to an increase in planted area of 3.7%. StatsCan expects output of Canadian rapeseed (canola) in 2025 of 20.0 Mt, up 4.1% on the year.
However, the upcoming US-China meeting raises hopes for improved trade, particularly for renewed exports of US soya beans to China.
