Grain prices have slipped back slightly over the week, with European markets pressured by intense export competition from the Black Sea and Argentina.
The current AHDB Grain Market Report shows the May-26 contract standing at £177.40/t, domestic wheat futures fared a little better than Paris futures due to a weaker sterling against the US dollar and the euro.
Argentine 11.5% protein wheat was quoted at the lowest levels, around $209–211/t FOB for December shipment, while Russian, Ukrainian and Romanian offers were slightly higher at $225–227/t FOB. French wheat sat just above (+$2/t) the Russian range (LSEG).
There are suggestions that the US maize crop estimated by the USDA in September (16.8 Mt), may not be as large, with analysts currently estimating a crop size of around 16.6 Mt (LSEG). The USDA is due to publish its official supply and demand estimates later today. A Reuters poll of nine analysts estimates the US maize harvest at 92% complete, slightly behind last year’s pace reported by the USDA of 95% complete.
Looking ahead, Black Sea consultancy SovEcon is also suggesting a decrease in 2026 Russian wheat production to 83.8 Mt, due to an anticipated reduction in the area from the latest estimate of 87.8 Mt in the current season (LSEG).
Oilseed prices also dipped a little. Paris rapeseed futures slipped to €478.50/t yesterday, the May-26 contract to €475.75/t. Uncertainty hangs over the oilseeds complex as traders await further news around the Chinese-US soya deal.
