The AHDB has released its first 2025/26 UK cereals supply and demand estimates.
Following record imports of wheat and maize last season, with good crop quality from last harvest, the AHDB expects imports to be pegged at 2.20 Mt, down 28% on the year.
With a drop in bioethanol demand, a relatively well supplied feed pool and domestic grains pricing more favourable to imported product, less maize is expected to be imported this season.
The AHDB expects total cereal usage in animal feed to remain relatively unchanged from last season, total cereals consumption by human and industrial (H&I) sectors is set to fall by 11% on the year to a 16-year low.
The UK-US trade deal pressured the UK bioethanol sector. Following the Vivergo shutdown, Ensus is yet to get back up and running following its usual maintenance break. In the absence of government incentives for domestic bioethanol production, the AHDB assumes it will remain out of operation as part of its balance sheet calculations.
It’s not just a drop in bioethanol demand that is fuelling the overall decline, demand from the brewing malting and distilling (BMD) sector is also expected to continue to fall.
H&I barley demand is forecast at a 16-year low, with the BMD sector being significantly impacted by the cost-of-living crisis and changing consumer habits. While not expecting a huge decline, usage by flour millers is also set to drop slightly this year too, with some citing changing consumer habits as part of the reason.
A drop in supply outweighs a fall in demand, leading to a tighter balance sheet
Despite the drop in consumption, the overall predicted fall in availability has led to a tighter total cereals balance sheet. “It’s not just the estimates telling us this, the market is also pricing like this – we are still pricing for imports rather than exports,” notes AHDB analyst Millie Askew.
Similarly, the AHDB suggests the demand picture will play its part. Questions remain over whether the bioethanol sector gets back up and running, further drops in BMD usage and the possibility of stronger animal feed demand.
