As grain prices remain low, the only hope on the horizon is the imminent USDA July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
The latest AHDB Grain Marketing Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) slipped slightly further this week, standing at £175.50/t. The May-26 contract was broadly unaltered at £188.25/t.
AHDB analysts don’t see much else in the way of support, with harvest now underway in some regions and about to do so elsewhere.
Trader expectations are for an increase in maize stocks of 2.2 Mt and a 1.0 Mt increase in soyabean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season compared to the previous June report. However, no significant changes are forecast for global wheat ending stocks. If the WASDE figures show otherwise it would take traders by surprise.
Traders will also be keeping a close eye on crop progress estimates. As of 06 July, 53% of the US winter wheat crop had been harvested, relatively in line with the five-year average (54%) for this point in the season. In some southern states, harvest is almost complete.
Well above the five-year average is the condition of the US maize crop, 74% of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition on the same date.
We expect to post an update on July’s WADSE report on Monday, 14 July.
Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures also fell over the week, standing at €474.00/t. Again, this was in part due to improving crop conditions, rainfall in some Canadian regions eased concerns about the canola crop.
