Grain prices have rebounded from the falls of last week, with May-26 UK feed wheat futures back at £174.45/t, where they were at the middle of the month.
Support hasn’t just come from the uncertainties over the Gulf conflict but weather risks too.
Dry weather across the US Plains has seen severe to extreme drought conditions in major wheat producing states such as Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. Rains are forecast for these areas over the next week, which will help relieve some crops.
AHDB analysts expect the trade will monitor this closely as it is a fundamental market driver, with April being the US spring crop planting window.
Traders will also keep an eye on the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports, due later this week. The market is uncertain that the numbers may not be representative of the true picture, given the recent geopolitical unrest, and the rise of fertiliser costs could further drive a shift from maize to soyabeans.
Oilseeds outlook
Rapeseed prices have dipped from the highs in the middle of the month. Paris rapeseed futures May-26 stand at €500.25/t, the Nov-26 contract slipping to €497.00/t. The price difference between old (May-26) and new crop (Nov-26) Paris rapeseed futures is now at €3.25/t, likely driven in part by the increasing unpredictability of future events.
The oilseed market is mainly influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the volatility of crude oil prices resulting from the war in the Middle East, and the uncertainty surrounding the rescheduled meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
However, good news is that the US biofuels directive appears to still be on track. It is still to be confirmed but AHDB analysts have received no recent reports that suggest significant changes to the proposals.
