Despite the USDA predicting a 4.2 Mt decline in global wheat stocks over 2026/27 due to a 24.8 Mt drop in production, wheat markets have felt the pressure from a lack of details from trade talks between the US and China. This weighed on prices and triggered fund selling at the back end of last week.
May-26 UK feed wheat futures dipped slightly, currently at £185.30/t, while the November contract gained, sitting at £189.90/t.
Global maize stocks are also expected to fall in 2026/27. However, the predicted stocks for wheat and maize in major exporting countries are still above 2024/25 levels, both at the headline level and as a percentage of demand. AHDB analysts expect this to apply some market pressure.
But to go with the geopolitical uncertainties, there is the weather too. The chance of an El Niño weather event developing from May-July is now 82%, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre. For December-February 2027, it is above 90%.
El Niño often brings drier weather in Australia and South East Asia, plus changes to weather patterns in South America.
This could impact the oilseeds complex, which remains buoyant with Brent Crude prices close to $110/barrel with little news on the US – China trade talks.
Paris rapeseed gained significantly, the Nov-26 contract currently sitting at €528.75/t.
