Grain prices have eased slightly as shipping started to transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
November 26 UK feed wheat futures sit at £190.75/t as Brent Crude prices fell on the back of what appeared to be improving relations between the US and Iran. Improving weather conditions have also eased market concerns over US crop conditions.
Rain has arrived too late for many wheat crops, with the latest data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reporting up to 44% of the winter wheat rated at ‘very poor to poor’. However, it has come in time for newly planted maize crops.
Rain has also arrived in many parts of Europe. The EU Commission reduced its estimates of 2026 barley production in the bloc by 1.2 Mt to 51.7 Mt. This is now 3.9 Mt less than last year’s high-yielding crop but still 2.5% above the five-year average.
The Commission also cuts its forecasts for the maize crop by 0.8 Mt and soft wheat by 0.4 Mt. Both crops are now projected at just 0.2% above the five-year averages.
However, SovEcon increased its estimate of the 2026 Russian wheat crop by 0.6 Mt from previous figures to 90.3 Mt. With Russia’s Ag Minister forecasting 2026/27 wheat exports at 50.0 Mt, this could mean tough competition for European wheat next season.
Despite the easing of Brent Crude, Paris oilseed futures gained, the Nov 26 contract rising to €533.75/t on the back of weather concerns.
Canadian canola planting has been delayed by poor weather. The weather is the reason why Expana has cut its EU 2026 rapeseed output forecast, following challenging spring conditions. Looking ahead, the possibility of an El Niño event could see further support for palm oil prices, in turn supporting the wider vegetable oil complex.
