Grain prices have slipped back despite some lingering support from the recent drought in the US. November 26 UK feed wheat futures sit at £181.00/t, down close to £10.00/t on the week.
With the Northern Hemisphere harvest underway, US harvest pressure is feeding into global pricing, with good progress seen in Oklahoma and Texas.
In addition, the USDA estimated that 67% of US maize was in good or excellent condition, the first estimate for the 2026 campaign. It is marginally down in comparison to the same point last year of 69%.
With widespread rains forecast over the US Midwest over the next week, this could support germination and crop development, possibly weighing on global markets further.
This is the case following a further increase in the Russian wheat crop. Agricultural consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat estimate to 91.5Mt, a 1.5 Mt lift on the previous estimate.
Looking ahead, Argentina’s wheat crop is being sown at a record pace, with 32.4% of the total area sown just weeks into the 2026 wheat campaign, 12.4% ahead of the five-year average.
Oilseeds outlook
Despite favourable weather and US soya bean planting ahead of the five-year average, rapeseed continues to find support. Paris oilseed futures dipped slightly, sitting at €527.00/t.
According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the area planted with canola is expected to fall by 6% to 3.5 Mha. The harvest is predicted to be 20% smaller at 6.2 Mt, the lowest level since the 2023/24 season.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is forecasting 13.3 Mt of sunflower seeds and 3.4 Mt of rapeseed to be produced in Ukraine in 2026, down from the USDA May forecast.
