Grain prices have risen on the back of weather concerns, although gains were capped by the weight of large global supplies and ongoing northern hemisphere harvest pressures.
November 26 UK feed wheat futures have bounced back to over £180/t, the question is whether they will keep rising?
With harvest underway across the Northern Hemisphere, AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant says it’s now a ‘waiting game’ as harvest yield and quality data come through and provide the insight for more accurate predictions.
Hot weather has already impacted the French maize crop. The French Ministry of Agriculture and Food now expects production could fall by as much as 30% combined with a smaller area this season.
The same French ministry also downgraded soft wheat ratings. Last month, the European Commission also cut its forecast for EU-27 common wheat usable production by 0.6 Mt, to 126.3 Mt.
In the US, more than 50% of the wheat harvest is now in. Again, the AHDB needs more data before any conclusions can be drawn but reports suggest concerns over hard red protein levels.
Helen has heard that in those states most impacted by the drought, yields are below average. “However, we need to see the results of Canadian and German hard red wheat harvests before the impact on global protein is known,” she notes.
With crude oil prices falling further, it has put some pressure on rapeseed prices. November Paris oilseed futures have dipped to €520.50t, but losses have been capped by vegetable oil demand. The USDA has upped its soya bean forecast to close to 35 Mh but it has also forecast higher demand.
