Conflict escalation in the Middle East and Europe has pushed markets higher.
Wheat gained significantly at the end of last week and has continued on the same path this week, Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures currently sitting at £187.75/t.
Last Friday, Ukraine launched strikes against Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov, forcing Russia to temporarily stop shipping moving from the Don River into the Sea of Azov. Traffic also slowed through the Strait of Hormuz after the USA and Iran again traded air strikes. As a result, Nearby Brent crude oil futures have also been on the rise.
In Western Europe and Hungary, the hot, dry weather continues to impact maize crops. As of 6 July, just 47% of French maize was in good or very good condition, down from last week’s 58% (FranceAgriMer).
Trade association Coceral cut its estimate of the EU-27 maize crop significantly. At 52.7 Mt, the crop would be the lowest since 2007 and AHDB analysts believe this could drive feed demand towards wheat and barley.
Coceral also cut its forecast for the EU-27+UK wheat and barley crops by 2.9 Mt and 1.2 Mt, respectively, due to the weather.
The USDA has also cut its estimates of global wheat and maize stocks in 2026/27, slightly more than the market expected.
Oilseeds outlook
With crude oil prices rising again, it had an even bigger impact on the oilseeds complex, Paris oilseed futures have jumped to over €540.00t.
Further support came from last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which cut the global soya bean ending stocks for 2026/27 by 0.71 Mt to 124.17 Mt.
