For the second week running, grain prices are largely unchanged. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures have dipped fractionally to £212.75/t.
AHDB analysts note that prices fell on the back of an unexpected increase in the forecast of global wheat stocks at the end of 2026/27. Global wheat stocks at the end of this season are now forecast at 276.3 Mt, up 3.0 Mt from August’s report. This is largely due to increased crop estimates for Australia and Canada. In addition, the possibility of talks between Russia and Ukraine weighed on prices.
However, further air strikes on key infrastructure and data showing the ongoing disruption to Black Sea trade limited the price impact. SovEcon cut its forecast of Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 by 3.2 Mt to 41.4 Mt due to the conflict.
European Commission data shows the EU is shipping more barley to Middle Eastern countries due to the conflict in the Black Sea. Between 1 July and 7 September, the EU had shipped 887 Kt of barley to Saudi Arabia, compared to 411 Kt in the same period last season.
Further afield, the USDA cut its forecast of the US 2026 maize crop by 5.4 Mt to 401.3 Mt due to hot weather this summer affecting yields.
Oilseeds outlook
The oilseeds complex also remains buoyant.
Oilseed futures prices came under pressure on Friday after a surprise increase to the US soya bean crop estimate.
However, the AHDB says prices were underpinned by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea for most of the week. Oil prices have risen following the Iranian-backed Houthis capturing Perim Island in the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and a suspected Iraq drone attack which shut down Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline for a while. Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures remain above €550.00/t.
