The prospect of the US producing its second-largest maize crop on record weighed on markets, Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures slipping to £205.25/t
The USDA unexpectedly raised its US maize production estimate to 407.3 Mt, after increases to national yields. Further, beginning stocks rose after the September Grain Stocks report. Although demand was revised higher, the increase in supply was larger, pushing 2026/27 US ending stocks up to 47 Mt.
According to AHDB analysts, the domestic market was further pressured by sterling strengthening against the euro.
Another driver of market sentiment could be the next USDA crop progress report. In the US, rain has been limited, so growers made good progress with field work. However, with rain forecast in the coming week, a slowdown in field work could be a watchpoint for markets.
According to the AHDB, diplomatic relations should also be a watchpoint for grain price movements; geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin grain markets. Progress on a Black Sea truce has been minimal and US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was later followed by Russian attacks.
Oilseeds outlook
Good US weather also helped pressure the oilseeds complex, as did fluctuating crude oil prices.
The AHDB expects the next USDA harvest progress report to show strong progress with the US soya bean harvest. This followed a revised USDA estimate for the 2026 US soya bean yield from 3.55t/ha to 3.57t/ha. This added 0.7 Mt to the crop, now estimated at 124.2 Mt.
However, higher crush demand and exports kept the USDA’s forecasts for end of 2026/27 stocks in the US almost unchanged, which limited price reaction. Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures currently sit at €512.25/t.
With the geopolitical volatility, crude oil prices are likely to remain a key driver for oilseeds this week.
