AHDB’s early balance sheets for 2026/27 anticipate a tighter UK supply and demand outlook for both wheat and barley compared to last season.
A slight year-on-year increase in wheat production isn’t enough to offset the fall in opening stocks. The AHDB estimates the 2026 UK wheat crop at 12.07 Mt, up 1% on the year but 9% below the five-year average.
The AHDB estimates wheat availability for 2026/27 at 16.338 Mt, down 215 Kt on the year. Low opening stocks are only partially balanced by slightly higher production and forecast imports. 2026/27 opening stocks are estimated at 1.514 Mt, down 466 Kt on the year.
2026 UK wheat production is estimated at 12.074 Mt, up 116 Kt year on year. A small decrease in planted area is offset by a slight improvement in estimated UK average yield. While up on the year overall, regional yields varied widely, with a lack of rainfall impacting crops across the southern half of England. Output remains below the previous five-year average.
Wheat imports in 2026/27 are initially estimated at 2.750 Mt, up 135 Kt from 2025/26. Imports of high-specification milling wheat are expected to be minimal this season due to the large proportion of the UK wheat exceeding protein level requirements.
However, lower opening stocks mean higher imports of feed grain will be required – levels of demand for animal feed and bioethanol, as well as the price competitiveness of different grains through the season will influence wheat import pace.
Domestic demand
Total domestic consumption of wheat in 2026/27 is estimated to fall by 124 Kt on the year to 13.979 Mt. This is due to a drop in human and industrial (H&I) usage and similar usage in animal feed to last year.
H&I wheat usage is estimated at 6.411 Mt in 2026/27, down 153 Kt or 2% from 2025/26 levels, which was already the lowest since 2006/07. The fall on the year is driven by a drop in demand by both the flour milling and bioethanol sectors.
The Ensus bioethanol plant is in operation until the end of October 2026, and these estimates only factor in wheat usage until then. The AHDB says any future announcements will be incorporated into subsequent estimates.
Flour demand continues to be subdued, impacted by changing consumer diets, and the trend is expected to remain this season. Extraction rates were good last season, and this is expected to remain in 2026/27. Due to the strong functionality of the UK wheat harvest this year, a further increase in the proportion of home-grown wheat is anticipated in the grist throughout this season.
Brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) wheat usage is expected to be relatively stable on the year.
In 2026/27, wheat usage in animal feed is estimated at 7.249 Mt, similar to 2025/26 (+29 Kt). While GB compound feed production is expected to remain relatively stable this season, relative price and availability of feed grains will impact feed rations. Factors to consider are lower barley and oat availability, potential benefits of higher protein domestic wheat, and the price competitiveness of imported maize into different parts of GB and Northern Ireland.
The main growth area forecast is feed production for integrated poultry units (IPUs) as demand for poultry continues to be positive.
The amount of wheat fed on farm is currently forecast slightly lower than last year with tighter UK wheat stocks and a more typical weather pattern assumed. However, with forage stocks lower than desired in some regions, weather conditions in the coming months will be a key determinant of grain demand on farm.
Possible export surplus
With the drop in availability outweighing the fall in total domestic consumption, the balance of wheat supply and demand in 2026/27 is estimated to fall by 91 Kt from 2025/26 levels to 2.359 Mt. Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 1.500 Mt, this leaves a surplus available for either export or free stock of 859 Kt.
The cost of imports as well as domestic demand trends will determine if closing stocks increase this season or remain at the low levels seen at the end of 2025/26.
