Possible rapeseed support with Brazilian climate volatility

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The latest AHDB grain market report shows no real change in grain prices but there is potentially better news with rapeseed.

UK feed wheat futures (May-24) closed on Thursday 16th November at £200.05/t, down £2.65/t on the previous week. New crop futures (Nov-24) closed at £208.75, down £0.25/t over the same period. It’s the same story of competitive Black Sea origin wheat.

Prices were further pressured as FranceAgriMer forecast that French wheat stocks would hit a six-year high due to lower animal feed demand and exports to EU countries. The French agency also raised its export forecast outside the EU by 300 Kt; this is due to a larger estimate of French wheat being sold to China and Egypt.

It is too early to forecast which way rapeseed prices will shift.

The Brazilian soyabean crop is forecast by many forecasters to be 160 Mt or more, which is above the record 154.6 Mt produced last year. However, possible revisions are already underway.

Ag Rural estimated the Brazilian crop at 163.5 Mt, down from 164.6 Mt estimated in October. The consultants also cited that new cuts were possible before the end of this month depending on the weather.

Like many regions weather volatility is being experienced. Over recent weeks the weather has fluctuated with some areas experiencing rainfall but others getting next to nothing. Excessive rain has slowed planting

In the key soyabean region of Mato Grosso some areas have received as little 1″  of rain with searing temperatures approaching 40°C, not ideal conditions for a soyabean crop that has just been sown.

The climate impact is likely to continue, widespread rain is forecast for many major soyabean producing regions.

At the moment it’s in the balance. Brazilian 2023/24 soyabean ending stocks are currently estimated at 39.7Mt (USDA). This is an increase of 6.3 Mt from last year (2022/23) and the highest ever.

The current Brazilian weather could see support for rapeseed prices but the production cuts aren’t currently sufficient to reduce the large global soyabean surplus. Well not yet.

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