Has the slide in grain prices ‘bottomed out’?

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For the first time this year, there’s some positive news with the latest AHDB Grain Market Report.

After hitting a seasonal low on February 22nd, grain prices have seen a slight recovery over the last seven days. UK feed wheat futures (May-24) gained over £2.00 and currently stand at £165.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-24) also rose slightly to reach £182.30/t.

It isn’t much considering the fall since the start of the year but given that some analysts expected prices to continue to slide it is welcome.

It’s down to a potential pick-up in demand, both within France and in international markets. There have been tenders from Tunisia, Jordan and Bangladesh this week (LSEG), short covering in wheat futures by speculative traders, the possibility that the US might impose new sanctions against Russia and weather concerns in the US – if cold weather returns some crops could be vulnerable.

ADAS senior analyst Helen Plant suggests it is too early to predict price movements and says more news is needed to support further rises.

South American maize prospects remain positive, with planting of Brazil’s Safrinha maize crop going well. Following the recent heatwave, the Rosario Stock Exchange cut its estimates for the Argentinian maize crop by 2.0 Mt and soya bean crop by 2.5 Mt. However, forecasts are still well above last year’s levels. On Monday 26th February the UK feed wheat futures (May-24) closed at £160.00/t and it could go back that way.

The weather in South America is keeping the pressure on rapeseed prices. Paris rapeseed futures (May-24) stands at €415.00/t. New crop futures (Nov-24) ending yesterday’s session (29th February) at €421.50/t.

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