Market report: All eyes on the weather in the Mid-West

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This week we have seen pressure on global and domestic wheat futures, with UK feed wheat futures for November 2023 falling for the fifth consecutive day. The weather in the US continues to be a key market driver, as well as markets watching and assessing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure closely.

Megan Hesketh senior analyst for AHDB says: “US weather continues to be watched closely by the market. This is because 59% of maize and 53% of soyabean crops remain in drought conditions (to 25 July). By 30 July, 84% of maize was silking and 50% of soyabeans were setting pods. Therefore, current weather is key for yield forming.

“On Monday the latest US crop conditions were released. As of 30 July, 55% of US maize had a good to excellent rating, down 2 percentage points from the previous week. Soyabeans saw the same fall week-on-week, with 52% now rated as good to excellent.

“We could see some market reaction to this today, though the forecast remains milder for parts of the Midwest over the coming week. Rain is forecast over much of the Midwest which could support yield potential.”

Another factor pressuring global prices yesterday was competitive Black Sea wheat values. Algeria’s state buying agency is believed to have purchased 660 Kt or more of milling wheat yesterday. Most of the wheat is believed by traders to have been purchased at $276/t (cost and freight). Traders expect the wheat to be of Black Sea origin, including Russian, Romanian and Bulgarian (Refinitiv).

“Yesterday, Tunisia’s state grains agency also issued a tender for 117 Kt of soft milling wheat. Eyes will be on which origin remains most competitive, adds Ms Hesketh.

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