Southern Hemisphere conditions affecting harvest

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The US market has fallen $8/tonne over the past week as continued sluggish domestic demand and a lack of competitiveness on the export market weigh on values. The drought and frosts in the cereal growing region of Argentina have caused the harvest to shrink to 3.7m/tonnes, a decrease of 31% over the last year.

Meanwhile in Brazil, the country’s supply company CONAB has reported that the wheat harvest is progressing well , with just over 72% of the national crop harvested by 9th November. The picture is not so good in Australia where washed out roads are becoming the hurdle as flooding continues to disrupt rural transport in eastern Australia and is encouraging fears of major quality problems.

Ukraine exports slowed

In the Ukraine, grain exports have slowed during November. The continuing uncertainty over the extension of the export corridor and more time-consuming inspections have reduced wheat movements in and out of the region. The analyst APK-Inform has cut its estimates of the Uranium 2022 grain crop to 51.8m/tonnes, down 1.5m/tonnes. This includes 19m/tonnes of wheat, 5.5m/tonnes of barley and 27.9m/tonnes of maize. Overall Ukraine exports have fallen 32% annually to 17.2m/tonnes. which includes

Nearer to home the EU Commission has trimmed its maize harvest estimate to 53.3m/t, down from 54.9m/t last month, which would be 27% lower year on year. It has also pared the soft wheat (excluding durum) crop to 127m/tonnes, and reduced the export outlook to 34m/tonnes. EU prices are down about €2-3/t following the weaker global trend, but export interest from China and North Africa has offered some support.UK prices have slipped £4.50/t as the bird flu epidemic continues to affect domestic wheat demand. We are still seeing spot bids for UK exports, although these may be curtailed by seasonal logistics.


Consumers in the domestic feed barley market remain quiet, although on the market has Feb onwards to buy and barley is still calculating into feed rations.The UK has traded into Spain, Ireland and the Netherlands in the past 10 days, although only in small quantities. Overall buying interest at destination remains thin.Turkey’s grain board tendered for 494,000tonnes for Jan-Feb’23 shipment, which traded out of the Black Sea/ex warehouse stocks already in the country.Farmer selling in the UK continues to slow, as sellers become increasingly ambivalent at these lower prices.

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