Grain prices have steadied over the last week, following the contract lows at the start of the month. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) at £162.05/t, the Nov-25 contract at £183.05/t.
Support came as sterling weakened against the US dollar, but this was limited by the improving fortunes of US crops, with fine weather continuing. Concerns over crops in China’s key wheat areas could influence markets if dry weather continues.
Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures stand at €473.50/t, up slightly from the previous week’s close. However, with tensions in the US-China trade war appearing to ease, it will influence vegetable oil markets.
Low farm wheat stocks
Defra estimates that 3.35 Mt of home-grown wheat was held on farms in England and Wales at the end of February. This is down 20% (822 Kt) from last year, and 15% below the five-year average. It is also the lowest in recent history, with only 2021 lower at 2.7 Mt.
AHDB’s survey results show merchants, ports, and co-ops (MPCs) held 957 Kt of home-grown wheat, down 13% year-on-year. However, imported wheat stocks show a very different picture, at 337 Kt, up 71% on the year and the highest on record (since 2008). This reflects the record level of imports this season to date, with a particularly firm pace throughout the first half of the marketing year.
The AHDB says the figures are unsurprising given the smaller domestic wheat crop in 2024.
