UK wheat has gone, in six months, from being some of the most competitively priced wheat in the world to among the most expensive. This year’s tighter UK wheat balance, in contrast to the well-supplied world picture, combined with a UK strong export campaign at the start of the season, means UK wheat prices have steadily risen up the world scale.
Also, despite entering the season with record high stock levels, a dip in output combined with growing demand on top of a further weakening of sterling have contributed to a reversal in the UK’s competitiveness on a global scale. This is largely in contrast to global wheat supply & demand, which is still pressured by the weight of abundant supplies.
The ascent of UK prices is expected to have put the brakes on what started out as a relatively strong export campaign. The second half of the season is now more likely to be associated with a quieter wheat export market and an increased need for feed grain imports.
This piece was supplied by Arthur Marshall, Analyst – Cereals, Oilseeds and Potatoes Market Intelligence at the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board