Mounting pressures have pushed grain prices down further ahead of the Easter Bank Holiday.
As well as the ongoing political tensions, currency fluctuations, competitive Russian exports and revived crop conditions with improving weather conditions.
The latest AHDB Grain Marketing Report shows UK feed wheat futures (May-25) falling to £170.15/t over the week, the Nov-25 contract also dipped to £186.00/t.
Drought hit US crops are expected to recover with beneficial rain forecast in the US wheat belt, much of Europe and Russia are likely to see better weather, weighing down on global wheat markets.
On the supply side, France’s farm ministry estimates the 2025 soft wheat area at 4.63 Mha, up 10% from 2024 and slightly above the five-year average.
The news of a bumper wheat crop from Argentina has also added pressure this week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is projecting that Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest will hit 20.5 Mt, which would be a 10% increase from last year. This boost is due to favourable weather and lower production costs. The Exchange has suggested that output could be even higher if Argentina’s export tax cut is extended beyond the end of June (LSEG).
Tariff currency impact
As well as the prospects of improving US conditions, currency fluctuations following Trump’s tariffs is impacting markets. While May-25 Chicago wheat futures closed down by 1% on Tuesday 15th, May-25 UK feed wheat futures lost more due to sterling strengthening against the US dollar. The AHDB warns that currency volatility is likely to remain as the US tariff situation continues to unfold.
Currency support for rapeseed
Rapeseed gained slightly. Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) stand at €541.50/t, the Nov-25 contract rose to €483.50/t.
Again, this was partly down to currency with a weakening Euro, Paris rapeseed futures found support from rising Chicago soyaoil markets. According to the latest data from NOPA, while a pre-report poll suggested a rise in stocks, US stocks of soyaoil declined for the first time in six months in March, lending market support.
Further support came following reports that suggest that China, the biggest buyer of US soyabeans, would be open to trade negotiations with the US.
