With maize planting about to start, drought fears in the US have pushed grain prices a little higher.
May-26 UK feed wheat futures stand at just over £177.00/t as traders await news on US wheat crop conditions. New crop (Nov-26) UK feed wheat futures also increased after falling last week to £181.50/t.
The US Farm Journal Ag Web recently reported that 60% of the country is now facing moderate to exceptional drought, the worst being experienced by the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains. With 68% of winter wheat in drought, producers face potential abandonment, especially as for many regions, there is little rain in the forecast.
Countering that slightly is the prospect of a higher level of maize production in South America. According to AHDB analysts, this is applying short-term pressure on price sentiment as the Brazilian safrinha crop has not been impacted by a severe weather event.
Last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange announced that Argentina’s 2025/26 maize harvest is expected to reach a record 67.0 Mt due to higher area data, up from its previous estimate of 62.0 Mt and 50.0 Mt in the 2024/25 season.
Oilseeds outlook
The oilseed complex remains buoyant with the ongoing political tensions. Paris May 26 rapeseed futures have risen to €508.25. However, with the contract closing soon, the AHDB expects the relationship with physical prices will weaken.
The Nov-26 contract slipped to €491.75/t, due to the crude oil plus optimism over new season supplies. However, with US and Iranian tensions over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices rose yesterday. This and ongoing tensions are likely to support the oilseeds complex further, with some industry analysts forecasting Brent Crude to be $115/barrel in the second half of 2026.
