It has been a quiet week for markets as traders await the outcome of Ukraine-Russia peace talks, set to take place in Abu Dhabi next week.
An agreement, or the prospect of one, could see a halt to Black Sea shipping and infrastructure attacks and the prospect of increased grain flows. AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant says both countries have adequate stocks.
Reuters has reported that Russian approved vessels are set to leave the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea for the first time since 10 July. Russia is also starting some exports from the Arctic port of Murmansk.
However, the outcome of talks is uncertain. Speaking at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted that he doubted whether a negotiated peace is achievable.
Doubts also remain over the US mid-term elections. Helen notes that any changes to the strength of the US dollar will impact grain and oilseed prices globally.
In the US, the maize harvest is progressing well, with yields and quality reported to be better than expected. Meanwhile, wheat harvesting is progressing in Australia and now underway in Argentina, with positive reports from both regions.
Oilseeds outlook
The oilseeds complex continues to ride on the back of high crude prices. Although prices have dipped from October’s close, Paris May 27 oilseed futures are just below €550.00/t
Further pressure could come from the US with a record US soya bean crop coming to market, the USDA reporting good harvest progress.
Looking forward, the drought-hit sowing in France likely caused Expana’s sharper cut to its 2027/28 EU rapeseed area forecast. Plantings are now expected to fall 5% year on year to 6.1 million hectares, compared with the 2% drop forecast last month. In contrast, the sunflower area forecast was unchanged, and soya bean area was raised by 2%, leaving rapeseed as the only oilseed with a tighter supply outlook for next season.
