Another week of near perfect harvesting weather has led to harvest progressing far quicker than expected and many farmers have reported finishing their wheat harvest before the end of July.
The wheat market has been a lot more volatile in the past week as the signing of the Ukrainian ‘export corridors’ agreement has been negated by weather oncerns and talk of declining harvest prospects. The Chicago Dec 22 futures ended almost $10/t lower on the week, while Paris and London (Dec and Nov 22) finished pretty much unchanged.
Also the EU Commission has proposed a short-term derogation from rules on crop rotation and maintenance of non-productive feature on arable land in order to boost production, which will be limited to claim year 2023. Conversely, Russia’s 2022 wheat production is now seen in excess of 90mt, with reports of better yields in the central and Volga regions mainly due to favourable harvest weather conditions.
Jonathan Lane, ADM Agriculture’s head of grain trading says, “Ukraine and Russia signed mirror deals at the end of last week to open export corridors to facilitate the export of millions of tonnes of grain out of Ukraine. The agreement is valid for 120 days and covers three ports (Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi) and ensures ‘safe passage’ in and out of the ports and a ceasefire clause for the ships and facilities covered by the deal.
“Ukraine’s grain exports may reach 2.5-3.5mt per month in the near future although logistics/freight remain an issue, with the 5mt/month pre-invasion level being talked about seeming unlikely.”
Meanwhile the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange again lowered its area estimate for the 2022/23 Argentinian wheat crop to 6.1m ha, as continued dryness hampers growers’ efforts to get the crop sown.
Canadian canola prices (Nov 2022) closed $10.60 higher on the week, supported by firmer energy markets and a boost in biofuel trade. The weather remains favourable for now. In France the Matif rapeseed closed up €24/t on the November at the end of the week. The EU harvest is advancing with higher-than-expected yields, but lower water levels on the Rhine are playing havoc with logistics to inland crushers.