After hopes of improved Black Sea export flows weighed on prices last week, grain prices have rebounded amid concerns about crop conditions and harvest progress.
Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures have fallen slightly, but at £211.75/t sit only a fraction behind where they started the previous week.
According to the AHDB, Black Sea developments were a key source of volatility for grain markets. Traders balanced continued Russian and Ukrainian attacks against hopes that a Turkish-backed truce on commercial shipping could reduce disruption and improve export flows.
Ongoing Russian and Ukrainian wheat shipments, including sizeable offers from Baltic ports, limited the market’s reaction to buying interest from Algeria and Pakistan.
But support came over concerns with the French maize crop and uncertainty around US harvest progress. French maize conditions deteriorated further last week, with just 23% of the crop rated good or excellent by 14 September.
This is a record low, and sharply below the 62% a year earlier. However, the AHDB says the impact of the heat and drought is largely priced into the market.
A focus of the market right now is US maize harvest progress. The weather in the US Midwest is expected to remain unsettled over the coming week. The US maize harvest was 8% complete as of 13 September, slightly ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet in Washington on 24 September. Agriculture and tariffs are expected to feature prominently in discussions.
Any progress towards lower Chinese tariffs or commitments to buy US agricultural goods, particularly soybeans, would be supportive for US oilseeds. It could also improve the sentiment in the grain complex, including maize and wheat. However, expectations remain cautious. Without clear commitments, the meeting could generate limited or short-lived market support.
Oilseeds outlook
Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures remain above €550.00/t.
Strikes against a key Saudi Arabian oil pipeline helped keep Nearby Brent crude oil futures high, reaching $108.75/barrel on Tuesday.
There is also concern over Canada’s canola crop. In Saskatchewan province, just 15% has been harvested by mid-September. This is the slowest pace since 2019. Statistics Canada forecast the canola crop at 22.1 Mt last week, just 0.8% lower than last year’s record. But the wet weather means ongoing doubts about the crop’s quality and is offsetting pressure from the crop projection for now.
