Despite the ongoing political tensions in the Middle East, the USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) helped put some pressure on markets.
May-26 UK feed wheat futures stand at £175.50, basically where they have been for the last two weeks.
The AHDB describes the report as ‘broadly neutral-to-bearish’ for grains, with US maize stocks unchanged, at a seven-year high. Further to that, increases to global wheat and maize ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year reinforced a comfortable global supply outlook, limiting any upside for wheat and maize futures.
Further pressure has come from beneficial rains following the recent US drought. Storms crossed portions of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma over the Easter weekend, bringing beneficial rains to areas where developing US winter wheat has struggled with drought.
This will also aid US maize plantings, which are just underway, and markets will become increasingly interested in this data in the coming weeks.
Oilseeds outlook
After a fall in oilseed prices following the announcement of the Pakistan brokered US and Iranian negotiations, Paris rapeseed futures have rebounded to over €500.00/t.
With no agreement reached, crude oil prices moved quickly back over $100/barrel and AHDB analysts expect the situation in the Middle East to remain the key driver for oilseed markets in the coming weeks.
It considers the market reaction to the USDA report as ‘muted’. The USDA trimmed its estimate of global soya bean stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season by 0.5 Mt from March to 124.8 Mt, due to higher expected crush demand. An increased crush demand estimate offset a drop in expected US exports to leave the end-of-season stock forecast unchanged.
