After a turbulent week, grain markets have held on to the gains made in the middle of the month. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures remain close to £200.00/t.
At one point last week, the contract hit £207.00/t but came back down due to profit taking and false reports that Ukraine was discussing ways to protect vessels using its Odesa-region ports for grain exports.
According to AHDB analysts, disruption in the Black Sea remains the main market driver as attacks on ports and commercial vessels continue. With both Ukraine and Russia having harvested significant grain volumes, any prolonged or complete halt to Black Sea exports would remove a large share of global supply from the market and provide strong support to prices. However, they point out the picture remains “volatile”.
Weather concerns have also offered some market support. According to data from FranceAgriMer, French maize crop ratings deteriorated further. It reported that just 38% of the maize area was in good or excellent condition.
Oilseeds outlook
A possible pause in the Middle East conflict has pushed oilseeds a little lower. However, Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures are still buoyant at just short of €540.00t.
Again, the oilseeds complex is “volatile” with no talks on a diplomatic resolution arranged. Iran has also vowed to retaliate after Ukraine hit an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea.
The AHDB expects the crude oil price to remain the primary driver of oilseed prices over the next few weeks. Longer term, the AHDB advises a key watchpoint is the Canadian canola crop. Analysis of EarthDaily’s satellite and agronomic data points to a favourable crop. Mid-season crop conditions across the Prairies are reported to be the best for around a decade.
