Grain prices are broadly unchanged amid ongoing disruptions to Black Sea exports. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures stand at £202.75/t, down just £0.25/t on Friday’s close.
According to the AHDB, various industry sources estimate that Russian grain exports fell 20% year-on-year in July, with steeper year-on-year reductions expected for August (LSEG).
Last week, Ukrainian drones struck three Russian grain terminals, resulting in a suspension of operations at Russia’s top wheat exporting port in the Black Sea, Novorossiysk. Russia retaliated with a strike on the port at Izmail. Ukraine’s Ag ministry reported grain exports down 10% year-on-year in the first 14 days of August, though some industry sources showed steeper falls.
Russia has also struck Turkish-flagged vessels, which saw Turkey withdraw shipping permits into the Black Sea.
The AHDB says there is growing focus on the reduction of exports from both Russia and Ukraine, in months when the countries typically ship large volumes.
But the weather is also still influencing markets. Concerns about low soil moisture levels in southern wheat growing states have supported US prices.
Meanwhile, Dec-26 Chicago maize gained 4.6% over the week, supported by signs of tighter supplies compared to demand in the US. Last week, the USDA reduced its forecast of the 2026 US maize yield by 0.14 t/ha from last month, to 11.35 t/ha. This was more than the market was expecting, according to a pre-report poll by Reuters.
The USDA has also cut stock forecasts more sharply than the market was expecting. However, a larger crop area could offset both, US maize production is now forecast up by 0.3 Mt to 406.7 Mt.
Oilseeds outlook
The disruption to rapeseed and sunflower oil exports has also continued to support the oilseeds complex, Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures rising for a second week to €549.00/t.
In addition, the conditions of sunflower crops remain a watchpoint amid ongoing dry weather for key European producers.
There are also concerns about planting winter rapeseed for harvest 2027 in Europe and Ukraine due to dry soils. Ukraine’s state weather service reported the typical ‘optimum’ planting window for crops in the country is 10-25 August. As a result, Paris rapeseed futures for Aug-27 have reached a new high, currently standing at €523.00/t.
