With just a few weeks of trading left, May-26 UK feed wheat futures have risen further and have moved to close to £183.00/t as weather worries and political tensions continue.
With drought conditions across much of the US, as of mid-April, just 30% of the country’s winter wheat was rated in good or excellent condition. 33% in rated at poor or very poor, the worst since 2017.
What AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant doesn’t know is how it will play out. There is no denying how severe the conditions have been this season but the climate variation for a country 3.8 million square miles in size is just too variable.
“In the past, the link between early poor crop reports hasn’t been seen in final yields. It can be an issue in some states, and there is always some crop abandonment in some areas. But usually, the national picture evens out somewhat.”
Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures have also risen to close to £185.00/t on the back of political volatility. Earlier this month, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) forecast that the 2026 wheat area in Western Australia is likely to fall by 17% to 3.68 Mha. If correct, it would be the lowest level since the 1992/93 season.
That is close to a 1.0 Mha drop from the previous season, with growers appearing to favour barley and oats, the latter 33% up according to the GIWA report.
A French grower group has reported growers moving away from maize due to higher energy and fertiliser costs, it expects the area to fall by 10–15%.
This could be offset by the prospect of higher maize production in South America. AHDB senior analyst Helen Plan expects this will result in short-term price sentiment as the Brazilian safrinha crop has not been impacted by a severe weather event.
Last month, the Rosario Grains Exchange announced that Argentina’s 2025/26 maize harvest is expected to reach a record 67.0 Mt due to higher area data, up from its previous estimate of 62.0 Mt and 50.0 Mt in the 2024/25 season.
Oilseeds outlook
Rapeseed has also benefited from political tensions and weather worries. The Nov-26 contract sits at over €510.00/t, with no easing of crude prices and cold weather during the pre-blooming period for the winter crop in the Black Sea region.
Last week’s USDA Crop Progress report showed that, as of 19 April, 12% of the US soya bean area had been planted, compared to an average of 5% over the past five years for this period.
In its updated monthly forecast, the International Grains Council (IGC) decreased world soya bean production for the 2026/27 season by 1.0 Mt to 441.0 Mt. It also increased its trade and consumption forecasts by 1.0 Mt and 2.0 Mt, and Helen suggests there is a chance the balance could tighten.
At the same time, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised its estimate for the country’s 2025/26 soya bean crop from 48.5 Mt to 48.6 Mt. This was due to higher-than-expected yields, despite the estimated planted area being reduced.
