Markets steady despite conflicting pressures

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Conflicting pressures meant it was a quiet week for grain and oilseed markets.

The latest AHDB Grain Marketing Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) up slightly at £178.75/t. The May-26 contract rose to £191.15/t. Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-25) also gained slightly over the same period to €485.25/t.

In many European countries, harvest is progressing well. FranceAgriMer reported that the pace of the wheat and barley harvest was well ahead of last year, and the five-year average, which put pressure on Paris grain futures.

Offsetting this is uncertainty over the potential impact of hotter and drier weather in Europe and Ukraine on maize production. The latest EU Commission’s MARS report cut yield forecasts, and some local Ukrainian analysts have downgraded expectations too.

Further afield, the US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, in line with the five-year average of 72%. The USDA also gave a favourable report for the maize crop, with 74% rated in good to excellent condition, the highest rating for this point in the year since 2016. However, there is still time for the weather to impact yields.

Oilseeds could find further support with the aforementioned MARS report. It decreased its yield estimates for sunflowers by 8%, and soybeans by 7%, compared to June estimates.

Attention is also turning to the US soyabean crop. It is now entering a critical phase for yield development, with flowering well underway and pod setting beginning. This marks the start of the key reproductive stage, where yield potential is highly dependent on favourable weather.

AHDB analysts advise growers to keep a close eye on Northern Hemisphere harvest progress.

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