Weather uncertainties have helped halt the slide in grain prices. The latest AHDB Arable Market Report shows May-26 UK feed wheat futures at £168.30/t, back to where they started the month.
A key concern is the state of US plains with dry conditions and the possibility of winter kill. The US wheat crop will be assessed as it emerges from dormancy and AHDB analysts suggest it should be a watch point for growers.
In Europe, excessive rainfall has led to deteriorating crop conditions, notably in the eastern parts of France. FranceAgriMer rated 88% of French soft wheat as good to excellent (to 16 Feb), down from 91% the week prior, but still significantly better than last year (74%).
Further support could come from the USDA’s first insights into the soya/maize plantings for the new marketing year. The USDA estimated maize plantings at 38.0 Mha, down near 5% year-on-year and below the analyst expectations of 38.4 Mha (LSEG).
The reduction in maize area was expected, given the price ratio between US maize and soya beans. Moreover, these numbers are based on 10-year baseline projections, and the numbers in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, due 31 March, could change.
Another watch point is the planting of the Brazilian second maize crop. The AHDB says this large Brazilian supply has been priced into the market, so any disruptions could mean market support.
US – Iran tensions push oilseeds higher
Paris rapeseed futures May-26 are at a seven-month high at €488.50/t, while the Nov-26 contract also gained to €471.00/t.
Weather-related risks for the 2026 winter crop in Europe are again a factor but so is the further deterioration of relations between the US and Iran. As a result, Brent crude oil futures rose by 5.9% last week to reach $71.76/barrel.
