The AHDB has published its first look at 2025/26 UK supply and demand. It forecasts a drop in wheat imports and opening stocks to outweigh a rise in production
Notably, with reduced availability of both wheat and barley, outweighing drops in domestic consumption, both balance sheets are looking tighter for the 2025/26 season.
UK wheat production is provisionally estimated at 11.836 Mt, with a larger planted area outweighing the mixed yields recorded this year. While production is currently projected to be 691 Kt higher on the year, at 16.017 Mt, total availability of wheat in 2025/26 is expected to fall 957 Kt on the year. A cut in imports of 868 Kt for the season, along with a 780 Kt decline in opening stocks, has led to total availability for the season to decline.
Looking at domestic consumption for the season, the AHDB expects a projected rise in animal feed usage to be outweighed by a drop in human and industrial (H&I) usage.
Domestic consumption is projected to fall 340 Kt on the year to 13.939 Mt. The main driver behind the decline in H&I usage is a drop in bioethanol demand. Following the closure of the Vivergo plant, it is assumed with ongoing discussions between the industry and government, that Ensus too will remain offline for the remainder of the season.
For animal feed, compound feed production is expected to remain relatively buoyant and with improving prospects for the poultry sector, integrated poultry unit (IPU) feed demand is expected to grow.
Wheat usage in animal feed is expected to grow to 6.969 Kt. Also, the cereal inclusion rate is expected to recover this season, with wheat snatching some demand away from maize.
With the fall in availability, outweighing the drop in usage of wheat, the balance of wheat supply and demand is projected at 2.078 Mt, down 617 Kt on the year. This is projected to be the tightest wheat balance since 2020/21.
