We enter the new year with grain prices broadly where they closed in 2025.
Both UK feed wheat futures (May-26) and the new-crop (Nov-26) contract gained marginally, currently sitting at £169.50/t and £172.00/t respectively.
According to the AHDB, abundant supplies and strong export competition outweighed concerns over political volatility.
Favourable conditions in Argentina added to the bearish tone. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has raised its estimate for Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop by 0.7 Mt to 27.8 Mt, supported by strong yields as harvest nears completion.
Maize planting is now 84% complete, slightly behind last year’s pace, while 83% of the crop is rated in good or excellent condition, well ahead of the previous year.
In the USA, the USDA is still catching up on reports after the recent government shutdown.
Oilseeds under pressure
Political and supply pressures have also continued to pressure oilseed markets.
Global rapeseed production is set to outpace consumption, resulting in increased ending stocks and downward pressure on prices.
AHDB analysts say the price of crude oil is currently being influenced by many unpredictable geopolitical concerns, especially in Venezuela and Iran. The supply of crude oil from Venezuela is difficult to predict following the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
The $60/barrel level is providing a strong support level for nearby Brent crude oil futures prices. If prices fall below this level, the AHDB feels it will put additional pressure on the global oilseed complex.
Paris rapeseed futures (May-26) are also largely unchanged from where they closed in 2025, at €461.75/t.
