Escalating conflict in the Black Sea and Middle East has pushed grain prices higher. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures closed last night at close to £200.00/t, the highest for some time.
Ukrainian strikes in the Sea of Azov have curtailed Russian exports, according to the AHDB, this route accounts for 25% of the country’s total. Russia has hit back, targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure. A Ukrainian farmers’ union has estimated this will affect around a third of Ukraine’s grain export capacity.
The Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing either. Following repeated US strikes, it was reported yesterday that two tankers were said to have exploded, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claiming these had been “brought to a halt”.
Speculative trading also helped push up prices last week, as did poor European harvest progress reports.
French agency Argus forecast the wheat crop (exc. Durum) at 30.8 Mt. This is down 8% from 2025 and 6% below the five-year average due to the hot weather. With the German wheat harvest getting underway, the farm co-ops’ association DRV cut its forecast by 0.7 Mt to 21.9 Mt. DRV also predicts a 5% year-on-year fall in barley production and a 10% fall for oats.
The hot weather also continued to impact maize crops in their critical “silking” stage in Hungary and Western Europe. In France, just 41% of maize is now in good or very good condition (FranceAgriMer).
Oilseeds outlook
With conflict escalation in the Middle East pushing up crude prices, it has impacted the oilseeds complex. Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures have risen to over €558.00t, a price not seen since December 2024.
With a super El Niño forecast, support might continue. Malaysian palm oil futures prices have also risen, as have Chicago soyabean oil (Dec-26) and soya bean (Nov-26) futures.
The USDA’s Crop Progress Report estimated that 65% of the planted soya bean crop was in good or excellent condition as of 12 July, up 1% from the previous week. However, it should be noted that earlier this month the USDA decreased the estimated global soya bean ending stocks for 2026/27 by 0.71 Mt to 124.17 Mt.
