A European and US study led by Miroslav Trnka of the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences has found that average global wheat prices could rise to USD 364/tonne if global warming continues.
Based on the planet warming by around 3°C, the wheat price would be roughly three times the inflation‑adjusted price in 2010. Should global warming be capped at 2°C, the researchers predict the average wheat prices could reach USD 273/tonne.
The report suggests this presents a growing climate‑related risk to one of the world’s most important crops. Wheat covers more land globally than rice or maize and is one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities. Much of the world’s wheat is grown under water‑limited conditions, making it highly sensitive to drought.
The research team, spanning climate science, agronomy, crop modelling, and food‑system economics, set out to answer a critical question: Can drought across global wheat regions explain year‑to‑year changes in global wheat prices?
To uncover this link, scientists developed a new indicator called severe water scarcity (SWS). It captures both short‑term and long‑term water deficits during the four months before harvest, when wheat is most vulnerable to moisture stress.
Researchers mapped SWS across global wheat, maize, and rice production areas and compared the affected area with global commodity prices. The clearest relationship emerged for wheat, with 74% of annual variation in global wheat prices (2000–2021) could be attributed to SWS alone. For maize, SWS explained up to 40% of price variability. For rice, no meaningful relationship was found.
The model was built without using data from 2022–2024, yet it still captured the broad price levels and shifts during these turbulent years, providing a strong real‑world test. Between 2000 and 2020, an average of 5% of global wheat land experienced severe water scarcity each year. In major drought years 2000, 2010, 2012, and 2020 – more than 15% of wheat area was affected. These spikes aligned with notable movements in global wheat markets.
As warming increases, severe water scarcity becomes more widespread across major wheat belts, amplifying price volatility and raising long‑term average prices.
Dr Mikhail Semenov, co-author of the study from Rothamsted, said, “The study does not claim that drought alone sets wheat prices. Energy costs, fertiliser markets, grain stocks, exchange rates, trade policies, pests, diseases, and geopolitical shocks all play major roles. But the research reveals a climate‑driven signal that has been extremely difficult to quantify until now and shows that large‑scale drought across key production regions can ripple through global wheat markets.”
