Ongoing geopolitical volatility continues to support grain and oilseed markets. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures have risen further, currently standing at £215.75/t.
September is usually a key Black Sea export month but this might not be the case this season. Last month, the International Grains Council (IGC) reduced its forecasts of exports from Russia and Ukraine and increased its forecasts for their stocks by the end of 2026/27. Ukraine’s Ag ministry reported grain exports down 69% year-on-year for the first three weeks of August.
Grain is still moving but not at the levels of previous seasons, says AHDB senior analyst Helen Plant. “I’m hearing of buyers having shipments delayed, but as time passes the risk of needing to ‘shop around’ for alternatives grows.”
Following the IGC’s cut to the 2026/27 world wheat production forecast, there is now some concern around the conditions ahead of winter wheat planting in some southern US states, with reports of poor moisture levels.
In Australia, Helen describes the weather as “challenging”, especially for Western Australia, which could compromise wheat yield and/or quality. There, the wheat area is already down with Australian growers switching to barley and canola with concerns over fertiliser prices.
Oilseeds outlook
Helen also expects the oilseeds complex to remain positive too. The dry weather has thwarted the start of OSR drilling across much of Europe. There is also the potential impact of the El Niño weather system on Asian palm oil production.
Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures have climbed to €544.75/t and forward contracts have also gained.
