Grain prices have risen following the US Pro Farmer crop tour, Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures lifting to £206.55/t.
The AHDB says the tour reported poorer-than-expected potential for maize crops. Dec-26 Chicago maize futures gained 5.2% over the week and ended Friday’s trading at a new contract high. Based on the tour, Pro Farmer forecasts the US maize crop down 10% from 2025’s record at 389.8 Mt, with yields down 7%. While still the third-largest crop on record, it is a bigger fall than the USDA predicts. Earlier this month, the USDA forecast a 6% year-on-year fall in production to 406.8 Mt, with yields down 3%.
Late-season rainfall can still influence US yields. The AHDB suggests traders will keep a close eye on weather conditions as the start of harvesting approaches.
In addition, the International Grains Council (IGC) has cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2026/27 by 4.3 Mt to 816.7 Mt. The cut partly reflects poorer prospects in Europe, including the UK, due to the sustained heat this summer. The global crop is now forecast at 27.5 Mt below last season.
Oilseeds outlook
The Pro Farmer report was more favourable when it came to soya beans, forecasting US production at 124.4 Mt, above the USDA’s recent forecast. It helped push Paris Nov 26 oilseed futures down to €522.00/t, although the company cautioned that late-season weather will still influence final crop size.
AHDB analysts also point out several factors could influence markets. These include exports of oilseeds and vegetable oils from Ukraine and Russia and, in the longer term, the impact of the El Niño weather event on palm oil production in 2027 and potentially 2028.
