Wheat growers who still have some nitrogen fertiliser to buy this spring are facing a double whammy from higher prices and disruption to supply, warns rural consultancy Ceres Rural.
Conflict in the Middle East is delaying supplies of nitrogen products and pushing up prices rapidly, highlights company agronomist Jock Willmott, affecting both affordability and availability of fertilisers as fieldwork gets underway.
He stresses that buying expensive nitrogen fertiliser which doesn’t get to the farm in time due to supply chain interruption is the worst of both worlds, especially where milling wheats are being grown and a late nitrogen top-up is required for protein.
“If you have milling wheat in the ground, are on a fixed £20+/t premium and already have the nitrogen you need, then it’s business as usual,” he says.
“That later application, based on the previous fertiliser price, will cost you £6-7/t on an 8t/ha crop. It remains worth doing.”
Otherwise, growers in this situation who are a bit short of nitrogen might be able to cut back elsewhere in the rotation and ‘rob’ any extra nitrogen they need, he suggests.
“This could be the year to pare back to 180kg/ha on first wheats. Most established well and have developed a good root structure, so will recover soil nitrogen more efficiently.”
Another option is to commit to buying the minimum amount of fertiliser required to get crops through to meet specification, as growers are obliged to supply a contracted crop. “If you haven’t got it booked, the difficulty is knowing whether it will arrive in time or not. Keep in touch with your fertiliser supplier and check out any opportunities.”
With no upward movement predicted on premiums and grain prices remaining subdued, growers on £15/t minimum terms have time to wait and see what unfolds, says Jock.
“If you’re not committed to supplying the crop, you may decide to push for yield rather than milling. Chasing that level of premium won’t appeal while the market is in such turmoil.”
Where there’s still around 80kg/ha of nitrogen plus the top-up to buy, it’s unlikely to be worth growing these crops for milling, he ends. “The economics won’t work and the logistics aren’t promising either.”
