The tide has turned on the relationship between old and new crop values for UK feed wheat. In the previous two seasons, we experienced unusual positive price carries, making old crop wheat more valuable in forward markets. The return to a more typical relationship means that old crop futures are currently at a premium to new crop futures. This price relationship suggests a disincentive for growers to keep this year’s crop in store and rather to sell on the spot market. However, have we seen any evidence of this yet?
The absence of official stocks information at this point in the season makes it difficult to determine. However, data captured through the AHDB Corn Returns survey can provide a signal of the trends of volumes moving off farm. It’s important to note that analysis of the Corn Returns volumes should be treated with caution. Nonetheless, the volume of wheat moved off farm exceeded the 10 year average each month of this season so far.
This piece was supplied by Arthur Marshall, Analyst – Cereals, Oilseeds and Potatoes Market Intelligence at the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board