The rise in grain prices at the end of February has continued following US and Israeli air assault on Tehran and retaliatory strikes by the Iranian regime.
May-26 UK feed wheat futures have jumped to over £170/t, the first time for several months and already well supported oilseeds markets have been boosted further,
After dropping back in late February, Brent crude oil has risen sharply, currently over $72.48/barrel. Paris rapeseed futures May-26 hit a seven-month high late in February at €471.00/t and have moved close €490.00/t following Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi oil facilities.
Senior AHDB analyst Helen Plant wouldn’t be surprised if prices moved higher but notes the volatility makes it harder to predict which way markets will go. With the Iranian regime vowing not to negotiate with the US, the conflict could continue for far longer than the four weeks US Preisident Donal Trump first predicted. “With disruption to shipping, higher insurance costs and the impact on grain supplies to the region, markets could remain volatile for some time,” she says.
Geopolitics isn’t the only watchpoint for growers. Concerns remain over the condition of US crops as they emerge from dormancy. Dry, cool weather is likely to have impacted crops, particularly in the Great Plains. What traders and analysts are waiting for is the state of winter kill and March rainfall.
Closer to home, crop condition concerns exist across much of Europe following cold or wet weather.
