Autumn’s arrival has seen no change in fortunes for grain markets. Wheat remains under pressure due to the combination of strong global supply and weak demand. Market repositioning has also been a factor ahead of the imminent USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Chicago wheat futures dropped by 1.0%, while Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) held steady at a contract low
The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows a small fall from August’s close. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) stand at £165.95/t, the May-26 contract at £176.45/t.
Not helping is revised Russian 2025 wheat production estimates. IKAR now estimating the crop at 87.0 Mt (up from 86.0 Mt). Meanwhile, SovEcon increased its estimate to 87.2 Mt, up from 86.1 Mt
Despite healthy European rapeseed production, support does remain for rapeseed. The German crop is up 9.4% on the year at 3.96 Mt. However, the strength across the wider vegetable oil complex saw a slight gain for Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures over the week to €467.75/t.
The outlook going forward is a little uncertain. Production looks strong globally with the Canadian harvest underway and strong prospects in Australia.
