Grain prices rose further with the Middle East conflict showing no sign of diminishing. According to the latest AHDB Grain Market Report, May-26 UK feed wheat futures stand at £174.45/t, their highest since November last year.
With Brent crude oil futures at over $100/barrel, it is helping to support markets, but so is repositioning by speculative traders.
However, overall, high global supplies continue to limit the upside for gain prices. The latest USDA report again showed 2025/26 end of season global wheat stocks near a five-year high and an increase in global maize stocks too. The Rosario Grain Exchange held its forecast for the Argentine maize crop unchanged after welcome rain.
Market intelligence company Expana increased its forecasts for the 2026 EU-27 wheat crop by 0.3 Mt to 128.6 Mt and barley crop by 0.1 Mt to 52.3 Mt, edging further above the 2021–2025 crop average. Gains in wheat and barley production were offset by a cut to the maize forecast to 57.9 Mt.
Drier weather in France has seen a jump in spring barley planting, with FranceAgriMer reporting it is now 87% complete. Winter wheat and barley crop condition scores were also stable.
Firm rapeseed prices despite correction
Rapeseed prices corrected after spiking last week but remain high with Paris May-26 rapeseed futures at €511.25/t, while the Nov-26 contract stands at €499.00/t. Chicago soya bean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) have also gained.
The AHDB expects currencies to influence markets with interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank due this week.
Chicago soya bean futures have been supported following the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture’s introduction of stricter sanitary inspections of soya beans destined for China, to screen for pests and weeds. This follows a request from the Chinese government (LSEG).
On Friday, Brazil’s agency Conab showed that the country’s 2025/26 soya bean production is expected to reach a record 177.85 Mt, slightly trimming its February forecast of 177.98 Mt. However, the latest forecast predicts that exports will reach 114.4 Mt, up from 112.2 Mt in the previous forecast.
