Improving weather keeps pressure on grain prices

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Improving weather and crop fortunes have pegged grain prices back further. The latest AHDB Grain Market Report shows UK feed wheat futures (Nov-24) at £199.45/t, a £3/t fall from the close on Friday 14th June. The May-25 contract also lost over the same period, to close at £207.50/t.

IKAR increased its Russian wheat crop estimate to 82.0 Mt, from 81.5 Mt. Meanwhile, Germany’s association of farm cooperatives put its latest wheat crop forecast at 20.34 Mt. This is 5.5% down on the year due to lower planted area, but little changed from the previous estimate in May of 20.31 Mt.

Further afield the US harvest is making good progress.

Earlier in the week the USDA released its latest crop progress report. Analysts expected the winter wheat harvest to have reached an average of 22% completion. However, the USDA reported that harvest was now 27% complete, well ahead of estimates and the five-year average of 14% at this point in the season.

States further south have made the most progress, with winter wheat harvest in Oklahoma now 83% complete. This is ahead of the five-year average for this state of 37% complete at this point in the season.

Over the next few weeks harvest pressure from the US could continue, though information on yield and quality will also be a key watchpoint.

Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24) closed at €474.75/t yesterday, gaining slightly over the same period.

Unfavourable weather conditions for key growing areas in Canada supported gains in rapeseed futures. In addition, estimates by the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative are that export prices for 2024 Ukrainian rapeseed will rise in the autumn.

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