Grain and oilseed prices have risen further as Iran retaliates against US and Israeli attacks.
May-26 UK feed wheat futures currently stand at £171.60/t, Nov-26 futures also gained to £185.00/t, the highest level since August 2025. Most of this is down to the surge in oil prices but other factors are influencing markets as well.
Nearby Brent crude oil futures have gained significantly since last week, currently over $116.67/barrel.
The military escalation has raised fears about supplies from the Gulf. A Maltese-flagged oil tanker was struck by an Iranian drone on Friday, 6th March and the possible closure and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is bound to push shipping costs higher and risk premiums too.
The seaway is one of the world’s busiest, with around 20 million barrels of oil, about 20% of global supply, passing through it daily.
The AHDB also notes that investment flows from funds and short covering of positions are also likely driving some of the grain price gain, as ‘managed money’ has been heavily net short in Chicago wheat.
The rise in crude oil has also pushed rapeseed prices even higher. Paris rapeseed futures May-26 stand at €509.25/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained €493.00/t.
No doubt traders will be keeping a close eye on the conflict but they will also have an eye on the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Ahead of the report, the consensus among global analysts is that 2025/26 global and US soya bean stocks will decrease marginally.
