Despite the political volatility, supply and demand is keeping a firm lid on grain prices.
AHDB data shows UK feed wheat futures (May-26) fell slightly over the week, sitting at £167.95/t. The new crop (Nov-26) contract stands at just over £170.00/t.
Following good harvests and crop progress reports from the southern hemisphere, the latest USDA US grain stocks and winter wheat area data were higher than expected.
Senior AHDB analyst Helen Plant expects it will be this way for a month or two, unless a significant trigger occurs.
That’s why she says it is important to know true cost of production figures she says. “Wheat prices are below where they were 20 years ago but since that time production costs have increased significantly. What at first glance might look like a good deal might not be.”
She also advises growers to keep an eye on markets and the news, a flash point could trigger a change of fortune.
The rapeseed outlook is more positive. Stronger crude oil prices and optimism over Canadian-Chinese relations have supported markets. Currency fluctuations have also helped, at one point, the euro fell to a four-week low against the US dollar, while a weaker Canadian dollar boosted Winnipeg futures.
As a result, the May-26 Paris rapeseed futures contract gained over the week and stands at €464.50/t. Prices for the Feb-26 contract are higher at €471.00/t, influenced by technical factors as the contract approaches its last trading day on 30 January.
